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Election in New Zealand
Will we get an election (Wahl) date today? (And what is a ‘caucus retreat’?)
January 20, 2026 by Llyoy Burr, published on Stuff (online magazine)
It’s election year but no one knows where the finish line is or where the goalposts (Torpfosten) are. Today, that will change with the Prime Minister announcing it. Will Luxon go early? Will he go late? What will he be weighing up (abwägen)? And what are caucus retreats and why do the parties have them?
It’s an announcement that usually excites only […] political reporters: The election date. Most Kiwis will read it, move on, and probably not give it too much thought until the election campaign […] begins six weeks out from that date. But there’s someone who’ll be giving it a lot of thought - Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. He has indicated he’ll be announcing that date today at the National Party’s caucus retreat in Christchurch. […]
Firstly, does he go early or go late?
Going early is risky. The economy is still sluggish (träge), the National Party coffers (Kassen) probably aren’t full enough, and the polls aren’t looking good for him or the party. Luxon will be wanting time for donations to come in, for the economy to start picking up some decent momentum (hier: Schwung), and to turn his personal and party polling around.
One of the benefits of going early is that Te Pāti Māori and the Greens are in a bit of strife (Streit). The numerous sagas (Erzählungen) that hit them both last year would likely affect their polling. On the flip side, this would likely benefit Labour […].
But going too late is risky too. A late November or December election looks like you’re desperately holding on to power. No one likes a squatter in the Beehive (,,Hausbesetzer in einem Bienenstock”).
Those dates also leave little time to form the government. It’s not a popular move to have that kind of uncertainty in the lead-up to Christmas and summer holidays. Going late also risks something else: It gives his opponents lots of time to prepare and attempt to turn the tide (das Blatt werden) too. Does Luxon really want months and months of Winston Peters or David Seymour undermining him, playing games, or scheming? No. Does he want to give Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori time to get momentum building? No.
But going late has its upside: It allows more time for the economy to really start pumping, and nothing is better for re-election chances than an economy you’ve promised to turn around, actually turning around.
Secondly, the weather
If it’s raining, snowing, or generally miserable, people are less likely to turn up and vote. And the rain affects people’s emotions too - which is not a frame of mind (Gemütszustand) you want in the polling booths (Wahlkabine). But if the sun is shining (and the flowers are blooming), turnout is higher - and so are people’s spirits. So a winter election is generally off the cards, and a late spring, early summer election is the way to go as that’s typically when the weather is nicer.
Thirdly, avoid big events
If the All Blacks are playing - even an away game - then the election can’t be held. It’s too much of a distraction and risks a poor turnout. The same risk applies to any big events or concerts. Ed Sheeran playing? Don’t choose that date. Taylor Swift holding a concert at Te Kaha? Don’t choose that date. While the school holidays aren’t an event, avoid them too because parents will be busy or families will be on holiday. Long weekends too.
So Luxon will be looking for a clean Saturday that doesn’t clash with any big event that will take the focus away from the polls or discourage (entmutigen) people from turning up to the polls.
What is a ‘caucus retreat’?
Both National and Labour are holding their annual caucus retreats today and tomorrow. National’s is being held in Christchurch, while Labour’s is being held in West Auckland. I’d assumed everyone would know what a caucus retreat is but, given the conversations I’ve had with people both in and outside of the newsroom in recent days, turns out I’m wrong […].
The “caucus” is the party’s current MPs (Members of Parliament). Throughout the year, they meet every Tuesday in their caucus rooms at Parliament to plan their week-to-week strategy. When it’s not held at Parliament, it’s called a “caucus retreat” or an “away caucus”.
But what exactly do they do at these caucus retreats? “Do they sing campfire songs and toast marshmallows?” asked one colleague. “Do they go on bush walks? Orienteering? Or sit in silence and do yoga while reflecting on the year ahead?” asked another. […]
These caucus retreats are the first of the year for both parties. They’ll focus on high-level stuff like strategy, campaigns, big events coming up, and the key focuses for the year. Another senior insider says the main benefit of the retreat is that it’s outside of Wellington. “It’s a good opportunity to get out of Welly and meet in a place other than Parliament. It really changes the whole vibe,” they said, adding there’ll be no suits, ties, or formal attire (Kleidung).
Form groups of three and do the following tasks:
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